Market Concerns Over the US-China Trade War Ease, Copper Prices Rise Overnight [SMM Morning Comment on Copper]

SMM January 21 News: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,178/mt, initially dipped to $9,149/mt, then surged to a high of $9,297/mt during the session, and fluctuated rangebound at the close, finally settling at $9,266/mt, up 0.92%. Trading volume reached 22,000 lots, and open interest rose to 291,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2503 contract opened at 75,350 yuan/mt, initially dipped to 75,200 yuan/mt, then climbed steadily to an intraday high of 75,870 yuan/mt, and dropped back slightly at the close, finally settling at 75,740 yuan/mt, up 0.09%. Trading volume reached 31,000 lots, and open interest rose to 158,000 lots. Macro side, Trump officially took the oath of office as US President, delivering the longest inaugural address since 1929, mentioning topics such as tariffs, energy, and green policies, but omitting cryptocurrency. US media reported that Trump is expected to release a trade policy memorandum on Monday but will not impose new tariffs on his first day in office. Affected by the news, market concerns over the US-China trade war eased, the US dollar index plunged, and LME copper hit a new high. Fundamentally, domestic copper cathode arrivals were limited, while imported copper cathode increased slightly. However, as downstream end-user enterprises gradually went on holiday and largely completed stockpiling, market transactions were moderate. As of Monday, January 20, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide increased by 1,700 mt from last Thursday to 109,800 mt, up 29,000 mt compared to the same period last year. Among them, Shanghai inventories were 14,800 mt higher YoY, Guangdong inventories were 3,900 mt higher YoY, and Jiangsu inventories were 9,500 mt higher YoY. Under weak consumption, weekly inventories are expected to continue increasing. Price side, copper prices are expected to find some support at the bottom today.